Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.308804 2.452692 2.605111 2.779307 2.973780 3.185266 3.434090
2025-05-11 2.085042 2.279574 2.496036 2.757226 3.067269 3.428076 3.886698
2025-05-18 1.942778 2.164608 2.419719 2.739360 3.135969 3.621740 4.278390
2025-05-25 1.831559 2.070000 2.351200 2.714076 3.180704 3.777175 4.627904
2025-06-01 1.740986 1.990498 2.290872 2.688156 3.214881 3.913996 4.961315
2025-06-08 1.676947 1.937470 2.257058 2.689561 3.279897 4.092810 5.372784
2025-06-15 1.632880 1.905414 2.245812 2.716880 3.378713 4.324977 5.895705
2025-06-22 1.566143 1.840360 2.187255 2.675070 3.375069 4.404451 6.184465
2025-06-29 1.504408 1.778430 2.128904 2.628677 3.359342 4.461368 6.440540
2025-07-06 1.443454 1.714686 2.064710 2.569608 3.319331 4.474619 6.618873
2025-07-13 1.421798 1.701323 2.066948 2.603667 3.420033 4.721288 7.269268
2025-07-20 1.405247 1.693648 2.075967 2.647150 3.537549 5.007997 8.060325
2025-07-27 1.387442 1.684020 2.082406 2.688153 3.656336 5.315474 8.985746
2025-08-03 1.350875 1.647378 2.049211 2.667535 3.672992 5.441483 9.540370
2025-08-10 1.318019 1.614533 2.019800 2.650626 3.693796 5.576732 10.155001
2025-08-17 1.285191 1.580520 1.987188 2.626687 3.700257 5.684387 10.731679
2025-08-24 1.254202 1.548014 1.955394 2.602136 3.703393 5.785247 11.323006
2025-08-31 1.232497 1.527784 1.940589 2.603467 3.751811 5.984164 12.271652
2025-09-07 1.218878 1.518446 1.941253 2.629342 3.846014 6.292775 13.703735
2025-09-14 1.188190 1.483815 1.903010 2.589738 3.816448 6.326190 14.225067
2025-09-21 1.157809 1.448849 1.863182 2.545768 3.775785 6.330094 14.648182
2025-09-28 1.125589 1.410493 1.817181 2.489743 3.708971 6.267084 14.800325
2025-10-05 1.117776 1.407162 1.823947 2.522052 3.813326 6.619649 16.815817